Christian Future |
The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianityby Philip Jenkins. Published by Oxford University Press. What does the future hold for Christianity? Many books have been written which argue that secular forces will cause Christianity to become more liberal and less literal. Such claims may be provocative and appealing, but they don't seem very credible in light of the actual demographic and geographic facts.
Just what are those facts? They are the subject of Philip Jenkins' recent book on the possible future of Christianity. If Jenkins is correct, by the year 2050, six countries (Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines, Nigeria, Congo and the United States) will each have at least 100 million Christians. Europe will have long been displaced by Sub-Saharan Africa as the principle center of Christianity, while Brazil itself will have at least 150 million Catholics and 40 million Protestants. More than one billion Pentecostals, among the poorest in their various populations, will be spreading their own beliefs to the rest of the world. Christianity is moving South, and it is taking on a new character:
The types of Christianity that have thrived most successfully in the global South have been very different from what many Europeans and North Americans consider mainstream. These models have been far more enthusiastic, much more centrally concerned with the immediate workings of the supernatural, through prophecy, visions, ecstatic utterances, and healing. In fact, they have differed so widely from the cooler Northern norms as to arouse suspicion that these enthusiastic Africans (for instance) are essentially reviving the pagan practices of traditional society.
All of this will likely sound very strange to most readers in the West - for centuries, the history of Christianity has been located in Europe and later in North America. Trends there have been regarded as distinctly Christian trends. Demographically, however, Christianity has been moving steadily southward. Even today, there are more Catholics in the metropolitan Manila region than in all of the Netherlands. If you ever wonder why the hierarchy of the Catholic Church keeps leaning towards conservative positions, the answer is very simple: they can count. Most of their "constituency" is conservative, orthodox and traditional. In short, they aren't in the North.
In fact, it really isn't that odd to consider the principle centers of Christianity moving out of the North - after all, it got its start in the Middle East and only moved northward slowly. Although the character of Christianity has been infused with a European flavor for about a millennium, there is nothing which says that this union must continue indefinitely. Even in the Middle Ages, there may have been more Christians in the East than in Europe itself - thus, the European character of Christianity may turn out to be just a temporary aberration:
Soon, the phrase "a White Christian" may sound like a curious oxymoron, as mildly surprising as "a Swedish Buddhist." Such people can exist, but a slight eccentricity is implied. [...] By 2050, there should be about three Christians for every two Muslims worldwide. Some 34 percent of the world's population will then be Christian, roughly what the figure was at the height of European hegemony in 1900.
Why is it that Christian churches have been so successful in the South? They are, quite simply, fulfilling profound social needs. Countries in the South are experiencing great economic and demographic difficulties - traditional ways of life are fading away while young people are moving in increasing numbers to the cities and away from rural areas, even as the population itself skyrockets.
Increasing numbers of people, disconnected from tradition and family, are searching for meaning and community in impersonal cities where there are few jobs and fewer opportunities. Christian groups provide a sort of "radical community" which is incredibly attractive. Here a person finds fellowship, social assistance, personal connections, and much of what they need most. In addition, these groups create a situation where supernatural power is shown to act in their lives, here and now, through the healing of illnesses and more. Interestingly, this is just the sort of community which the very earliest Christians provided in the Roman empire and which allowed Christianity to spread so quickly. Jenkins quotes historian Peter Brown:
The appeal of Christianity still lay in its radical sense of community: it absorbed people because the individual could drop from a wide impersonal world into a miniature community, whose demand and relations were explicit. [...] The Christian community suddenly came to appeal to men who felt deserted. At a time of inflation, the Christian invested large sums of liquid capital in people; at a time of increase brutality, the courage of Christian martyrs was impressive; during public emergencies, such as plague or rioting, the Christian clergy were shown to be the only united group in the town, able to look after the burial of the dead and to organize food supplies... Plainly, to be a Christian in 250 brought more protection from one's fellows than to be a civis Romanus.
Curiously, the Christianity which is found in the South is in character not unlike the Christianity which existed in the earliest decades. So perhaps Christianity is not so much taking on a "new" character, but simply reacquiring an earlier one.
These developments will have profound consequences for the future of international politics and relationships. People tend to think of Muslims nations as those which are the fastest growing, but Christian nations are growing at least as fast. Again, by 2050, nearly 20 of the 25 largest nations will be predominantly or entirely Christian or Muslim. At least 10 will be the sites of intense conflict, where Christian and Muslim communities vie for dominance. These conflicts may make the religious wars of the 16th century Europe look very tame - and they are already starting, especially in Africa in the Sudan and Nigeria.
And how should the increasingly secular nations of the North react? How will Europe and the United States deal with these conflicts? Will they even understand what is going on? That isn't a rhetorical question - the West has not shown a great deal of aptitude in dealing with Islamic fundamentalism in recent years.
Most books on Christianity today tend to focus on the experiences of the Christians in the United States and Europe - hardly a surprise, since that is where most of the audience for books tends to be located. However, this bias provides an uneven and inaccurate picture of the real nature of global Christianity. Judging by the books currently available, it is almost as if Christianity doesn't exist in the South; but Jenkins shows that the truth is radically different from what we might tend to assume.
It is possible that Jenkins' predictions won't come to pass, and he states more than once that unforeseen events might change things. As matters stand now, however, he seems to be on solid demographic ground. Even if Southern Christianity develops a more secular character like Christianity in the North, this won't happen for quite a long time - and not before Southern Christians engage in extensive missionary activities in an attempt to "re-Christianize" the North in their own image (something which is already occurring, by the way).
Philip Jenkins offers a lot of information and ideas which are not available elsewhere; because of that, his is a very important book which should be read by anyone who is interested in the history, present and future of Christianity. Perhaps we will see a number of new books dealing with this topic, but until then his is the best place to start.
What to learn more? Read the site's interview with the author, Philip Jenkins
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